The Writing on the Wall: Sean's Oscar Predictions, who deserves to win, and who got screwed

By Sean Knight

The Inevitable...

After The King's Speech sweep of the PGA, DGA, and SAG all signs point towards victory for Weinstein and company come Oscar night.  I can't say that I didn't see it coming.  For months many had been saying that The King's Speech was the film to beat.  It is a damn near perfect Oscar bait film on the surface.  But I truly thought that the brilliance and relevance of The Social Network would carry it through, despite it not being a traditional Oscar piece.  I have to admit now that I was wrong.  The Academy hasn't changed and it never will.  This should have been clear to me when Brokeback Mountain lost to Crash back in the 2005 race.  But with challenging pictures such as No Country for Old Men, The Departed, and even The Hurt Locker winning it blinded me.  Plus bloggers for years have been stressing that The Academy is getting younger that they have a broader sense of awareness blah blah blah... BULLSHIT.  Nothing has changed; we just got lucky for a couple of years.  In many ways this years race reminds me of 2001 when Ron Howard's revisionist tame audience friendly psychological character study A Beautiful Mind won best picture over better, bolder, and revolutionary films such as Lord of the Rings the Fellowship of the Ring, Moulin Rouge, Gosford Park, and In The Bedroom. Like The King's Speech, A Beautiful Mind was a beautifully acted and well-constructed Hollywood Oscar bait piece.  But also like The King's Speech it watered down it's subject matter to construct a more audience friendly film, it had a mediocre director with no clear vision for his film, and had a huge campaign behind it to convince everyone that it was the film that SHOULD win for being so damn uplifting.  This year The King's Speech faces off against often unconventional and visionary pieces such as Inception, Black Swan, The Social Network, and True Grit.  It is a crime that any of these films would lose to a picture such as The King's Speech, but the advertising doesn't lie - The King's Speech is one likeable fucking movie and at the end of the day voters vote on who they like they best, not who might actually deserve it.  Read on for my predictions in the "Top 6 Categories" after the jump.

I just wish it was for a film I actually liked.

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale in “The Fighter” (Paramount)

John Hawkes in “Winter's Bone” (Roadside Attractions)

Jeremy Renner in “The Town” (Warner Bros.)

Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right” (Focus Features)

Geoffrey Rush in “The King's Speech” (The Weinstein Company)

Who Will Win: Christian Bale - The Fighter

Who Should Win: Jeremy Renner - The Town

Who Got Screwed: Andrew Garfield - The Social Network

Christian Bale has this in the bag, which I find a little amusing considering that a couple years ago many people thought he could never get a nomination because he was so unlikable, despite his body of work.  Goes to show what a couple of years and a really baity real life role can do for you.  I do not begrudge Bale his success. I've always admired him as an actor through all the ups and downs.  Plus his debut performance in Empire of the Sun is one of the all time great child performances.  Jeremy Renner was the best thing about The Town and he gave a terrifying performance that was leagues different than his Oscar nominated work last year for The Hurt Locker.  Poor Andrew Garfield just got left behind in this race and I really blame the campaign behind him.  Four months ago he was the frontrunner for the WIN, not just a nomination.  He is the heart and sole of The Social Network and it's a bit of a slap in the face to the film to not have him included in the lineup.  If there is an upset here it will be Geoffrey Rush for The King's Speech and if that happens we can literally expect a clean sweep.

The Darkhorse for the win and my favorite supporting actress pick.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams in “The Fighter” (Paramount)

Helena Bonham Carter in “The King's Speech” (The Weinstein Company)

Melissa Leo in “The Fighter” (Paramount)

Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit” (Paramount)

Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom” (Sony Pictures Classics)

Who Will Win: Melissa Leo - The Fighter

Who Should Win: Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom

Who got Screwed: Marion Cotillard - Inception

Melissa Leo appears to have this in the bag for her embarrassingly offensive antics in The Fighter, but watch out for Hailee Steinfeld.  True Grit picked up many more nominations than was expected and next to The King's Speech it is the most nominated film.  She got rave reviews for her performance and she has been making the rounds to help her campaign - almost never a bad thing.  The woman who should win is Jacki Weaver for her chilling turn as the crime family grandmother in Animal Kingdom.  It's subtle and delicious work - the kind of stuff that should win Oscars more often.  Marion Cotillard misses out yet again this year for what is arguably one of the best female performances of the year in Inception.  She is the glue that holds the film together and gives it what little sentiment it has.  She was screwed over last year for her work in Nine, a film that I despised despite her wonderful performance.

There is no stopping Colin Firth.

Best Actor

Javier Bardem in “Biutiful” (Roadside Attractions)

Jeff Bridges in “True Grit” (Paramount)

Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network” (Sony Pictures Releasing)

Colin Firth in “The King's Speech” (The Weinstein Company)

James Franco in “127 Hours” (Fox Searchlight)

Who Will Win: Colin Firth - The King's Speech

Who Should Win: Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network

Who Got Screwed: Leonardo DiCaprio - Shutter Island

Colin Firth gives a damn good performance in The King's Speech.  I even nominated him for a Knight Award this year.  But he does not, in fact, give the best performance of the year.  Out of the Academy's nominations that distinction belongs to Jesse Eisenberg whose performance as Mark Zuckerberg proves to be more rewarding with each viewing of The Social Network.  But the actor who really got screwed this year because there was absolutely no campaign for the film, and it proved to be one of the most divisive films of Scorsese's career despite its box office success, was Leonardo DiCaprio.  His performance in Shutter Island was beautifully complex and never was what it seemed to be on the surface.  He broke my heart over and over again.  It is the actor's finest work to date, surpassing even what he did in The Departed, which he was also overlooked for.  DiCaprio frequently gets nominated for the wrong films and even had a shot to be nominated for Inception this year.  He must be feeling slightly bummed, but also laughing all the way to the bank.

There was a time I didn't like her... not anymore.

Best Actress

Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right” (Focus Features)

Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole” (Lionsgate)

Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter's Bone” (Roadside Attractions)

Natalie Portman in “Black Swan” (Fox Searchlight)

Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine” (The Weinstein Company)

Who Will Win: Natalie Portman - Black Swan

Who Should Win: Natalie Portman - Black Swan

Who Got Screwed: Tilda Swinton - I Am Love

Natalie Portman owns this Oscar.  Yes, there is an outside chance that maybe the actor's branch of the Academy may reward the long overdue Annette Bening who has been screwed twice before.  But that chance is slim. Portman gives the best and most daring female performance of the year in Aronofsky's dark and twisted world of film Ballet.  She has an unstoppable campaign and getting knocked up by the films choreography certainly didn’t hurt her chances.  Poor Bening will just have to wait another year.  At least she will be comforted in knowing that she isn't losing to Hilary Swank this time.  Tilda Swinton never really had a shot at this, but the Costume Design branch's nomination for I Am Love proves that at least some people saw it.  Swinton is at the top of her game in this Italian melodrama that actually turned out to be one of the very best films of the year.

The true deserving winner.

Best Director

“Black Swan” (Fox Searchlight) Darren Aronofsky

“The Fighter” (Paramount) David O. Russell

“The King's Speech” (The Weinstein Company) Tom Hooper

“The Social Network” (Sony Pictures Releasing) David Fincher

“True Grit” (Paramount) Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

Who Will Win: David Fincher - The Social Network

Who Should Win: David Fincher - The Social Network

Who Got Screwed: Christopher Nolan - Inception

I have said much about Christopher Nolan's snub for Inception.  We don't need to revisit it or else I'm just going to get myself all worked up again.  Even though Tom Hooper took the DGA honor the other night, I'm still convinced this is Fincher's to lose.  He is a respected director whose film this year is simply too big and important to ignore, which is exactly why they may end up ignoring him... He doesn't seem to want the damn thing bad enough.  Tom Hooper really wants this Oscar.  It would jump start his career in a big way.  If he continues to campaign as hard as he has been he may end up with the damn thing.  That being said, his DGA win could have been a fluke.  After all he is mainly a well-respected TV Director and TV directors make up the biggest fraction of the DGA.  But The King's Speech is loved, and The Social Network seems not to be.  This race is going to drive me insane and if Hooper does win the best director trophy it WILL be the most UNDESERVED win since Ron Howard for A Beautiful Mind.

THIS IS WHAT BEST PICTURE LOOKS LIKE.

Best Picture

         Black Swan

         The Fighter

         Inception

         The Kids Are All Right

         The King's Speech

         127 Hours

         The Social Network

         Toy Story 3

         True Grit

         Winter's Bone

Who Will Win: The King's Speech

Who Should Win: The Social Network
Who Got Screwed: Rabbit Hole

The Writing is on the wall. At this point there is no stopping The King's Speech.  Harvey fucking Weinstein will win again.  Why couldn't he have been this aggressive last year with Inglourious Basterds?  Oh yeah that's right, it wasn't conventional Oscar crap that the 50 plus year olds could eat out of his asshole.  The Social Network can be happy knowing that it will indeed stand the test of time.  It's damn near perfect filmmaking.  The picture I wish had gotten more attention this year is Rabbit Hole.  Yes, Nicole Kidman got her well-deserved nomination, but what about Aaron Eckhart or Diane Wiest?  Or how about the touching screenplay, or John Cameron Mitchell’s mature and restrained directing?  Rabbit Hole is the type of film the Academy would actually like if they had only taken the time to actually see it.  I'll weigh in sometime next week for my predictions in the screenplay and technical categories.  Until then stay tuned.  It's not over till it's over.




Christ almighty....