The Producers Guild Nominations: A Reaction

Sean here.  The Producers Guild Nominations were announced this morning and all I can really say is that this race has become extremely predictable.  No surprises whatsoever unless you consider The Town, but let's be honest it was an above average crime thriller that did better than expected Box Office.  Of course the Producers Guild would like it.  And I expect the same thing to happen at the Academy Awards, but I really hope they throw in a few curve balls.  As much as I couldn't stand The Blind Side last year it was definitely a surprising if undeserving nominee that got people all a twitter.  The Nominations and analysis are after the jump.

127 HOURS
Producers: Danny Boyle, Christian Colson

BLACK SWAN
Producers: Scott Franklin, Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver

INCEPTION
Producers: Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas

THE FIGHTER
Producers: David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman, Mark Wahlberg

THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
Producers: Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte, Celine Rattray

THE KING’S SPEECH
Producers: Iain Canning, Emile Sherman, Gareth Unwin

THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Producers: Dana Brunetti, Ceán Chaffin, Michael De Luca, Scott Rudin

THE TOWN
Producers: Basil Iwanyk, Graham King

TOY STORY 3
Producer: Darla K. Anderson

TRUE GRIT
Producers: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, Scott Rudin

Let's go through each of these films one by one shall we?

127 Hours - The one film on this list that I have still yet to see and I am hoping that I will be able to catch it soon.  I would say at this point in the race it may be the most vulnerable come Oscar time.  The film itself has gotten critical praise, but hasn't done well for itself with any of the critics awards.  James Franco seems to be the only thing anyone is thinking about nominating.  It will be an interesting dynamic come Academy Awards night to see Franco both a nominee and a host at the awards.  He doesn't have a shot in hell at winning, but the vibe in the room with be slightly off nonetheless, though I doubt Franco really gives a shit.  I read a lot about how much the Academy really likes Boyle.  Based off of what?  Yes Slum Dog Millionaire did sweep the Oscars a few years back, but that had much more to do with the momentum of the film than the director himself.  It's the same thing that is happening with Black Swan this year.  The momentum of the film is unstoppable so Darren Aronofsky will get his best director nomination, but to say that he is liked by the academy would be stretching it a bit.  He may get his actors nominated, but his films never do.  That will change this year.  Danny Boyle will miss out on the nomination for best director this year despite how good his film apparently is.

Black Swan - The support behind Black Swan is so shocking to me.  I mean this in a good way of course.  I am a big fan of the film and think it may be Aronofsky's best work to date.  It is definitely a complete directors vision put on screen and you are either going to buy into it or you aren't.  I drank the koolaide and came away thinking it was one of the best films of the year.  Time will tell whether Black Swan really holds up or not, but one thing cannot be disputed -  Natalie Portman gives the female performance of the year and that is what is really carrying this film through to the Oscar finish line.  Portman combined with Aronofsky's loyal fan base and slightly "overdue" status have made nominations for the film inevitable.  Though I do think if Aronofsky hadn't made The Wrestler a couple years back, Black Swan would be ghettoized for the genre picture that it is.  That's the thing about the Oscar game - much of the time you have to wait your turn.  Aronofsky has waited his turn.  It's a done deal, Black Swan will be nominated for Best Picture and Best Director come Oscar time.  The question is could the film pull off an upset at any of the upcoming awards?  It has the fan base and it certainly would shake up the race.

Inception - This was a given and if the film had come out in December instead of the Summer we would be looking at our Best Picture winner right here.  Inception is a rarity in Hollywood - an original big action summer movie with a brain.  It made a ton of money, was the most twitted about film on twitter, and was directed by the man who is the sole reason for the Oscars moving to ten nominees - Christopher Nolan.  He is due.  It would not surprise me in the slightest if Inception won the producer's guild award, but lost the Oscar.  In fact I'm pretty damn sure it doesn't have a shot in hell of winning the Oscar unless Nolan surprises at the DGA awards.  But The Social Network train appears to be pretty unstoppable for the moment.

The Fighter - I can see why this is doing well.  It's a classic underdog story.  It's shot with panache and has a bunch of actors hamming it up by portraying "real people".  It's the type of film you can see winning Best Picture despite its obvious flaws.  I won't go into too much more here.  Jeanette and I will have a review up later in the week about The Fighter... stay tuned.

The Kids Are All Right - The indie pick of the year and a good one at that.  Annette Bening is overdue for her Oscar win and the support behind her is what is carrying the film along.  But it should be content with being invited to the party because it does not have a snowballs chance in hell of winning anything besides Best Actress come Oscar time.

The King's Speech - Oscar bait if I have ever seen it.  That being said, the film does feature excellent performances, clever writing and some emotionally powerful scenes.  It's another crowd pleaser that makes you leave the theater feeling pretty good about your time at the movies.  It's a safe little period film and many think it is still the front runner to win Best Picture.  I have never understood this prediction and after seeing the film I understand it even less.  If this was the 1980's or even the 1990's I would believe this prediction, but take a look at the Best Picture winner's of the past five years and it becomes evident the Academy has changed.  Do titles like No Country for Old Men, The Departed, and The Hurt Locker remind you of best picture winners of old?  Not really, though of course some exceptions can be made.  I know that The King's Speech has the backing of Harvey Weinstein, but this isn't the late 90's anymore.  Still never underestimate Harvey - we all saw what he managed to pull off with The Reader a couple years ago.

The Social Network - So far this is the undisputed champion of the awards season and I don't see it's train coming to a halt anytime soon.  If we really want to talk about overdue then we really must point to David Fincher.  He has been making daring critically acclaimed films for years.  He even made an Oscar bait film with Benjamin Button, and while they nominated the hell out of the thing, they didn't give him the award.  Fincher did what many thought to be impossible - he made us give a shit about the facebook movie.  In fact he made the facebook movie into one of the most talked about and the most critically acclaimed film of the year.  There is a reason for that.  He reminded us that facebook is relevant and that in fact it is a part of our culture and society.  There is no escaping it.  At the same time he managed to tell a great cautionary tale with a modern twist.  Oh and then there is that script by Aaron Sorkin - the best script of the year if not the past decade.  It sparks with energy and wit and gives the film's brilliant actors some delecious lines to spit out with ferocity.  Writing and Directing rarely come together in such a happy marriage.  If The Social Network does manage to lose it will be travesty.  Fincher's time has finally come.

The Town - As I stated above this is an above average crime thriller with solid direction and performances.  There is nothing here that pops out as being particularly spectacular other than Jeremy Renner's performance. I'm sure come Oscar time he will be nominated, but I'm not sure about The Town itself.  I suppose it's liked enough, but you have to be more than liked to win.  You have to be The Departed and The Town is no Departed.

Toy Story 3 - I'm convinced that one day PIXAR will claim the Producer's Guild award and the Best Picture Oscar, but I doubt it will be this year.  But I can't get the thought out of my head of how appropriate it would be if this was the year that they won.  After all Toy Story started it all and Toy Story 3 is an extremely touching end to the series.  It's an animated film that made grown men sob in the theater.  How many movies can you say that about?  And to top it off, besides the Social Network, it is the most critically acclaimed film of the year.  If Toy Story 3 were to win it wouldn't be wholly undeserved, but it is the type of win that would come under immense scrutiny.  PIXAR may very well have to wait for another time.

True Grit - And last but not least we have the latest from the Coen brothers.  True Grit is one of their best films, but it comes with a bit of a problem.  Quite a few people don't think it is "Coeny" enough for the brothers.  It is true that True Grit is an extremely old fashioned western with period dialogue and a relatively slow pace, but make no mistake this is a Coen Brothers film.  It is filled with their love of cinema, their dark humor, their fast and brutal violence, and their lush character driven language.  It's not as sinister as No Country for Old Men which would make one think that it would play better with award voting bodies, but that doesn't seem to be the case as it was completely shut out of the Golden Globes and came up short compare to other nominees at the BFCAs.  But it does have Jeff Bridges and Hailee Steinfeld's performances carrying it through to the finish line.  In another time True Grit could have been a major contender, but I'm afraid it too will have to just be happy about being invited to the party.  I hope Joel and Ethan Coen will end up with nominations come Oscar time. But they can be safe in knowing that  it is very likely that Roger Deakins will finally win his Oscar for cinematography.

So who will win the Producer's Guild Award?  The smart money is on The Social Network which seems destined to win everything this year, but watch out for Inception and Black Swan.  The former is an unforgettable, and most importantly, highly profitable Hollywood film, while the latter is an indie darling whose momentum is growing every day.  Now we just await the Oscar Nominations. That's when the game gets really interesting.